The so-called Arab Spring claimed its first Israeli casualties on August 18. A “terror squad” coordinated attacks on two buses and two cars, as well as Israeli troops, killing eight and wounding 40. As Israel tried to deal with terrorist bases in Gaza, Islamists fired over 100 rockets, killing 15 and wounding nearly 70.
This is just the beginning. The attacks have made Egypt more
supportive of Hamas. Meanwhile, in response to the Arab Spring, Iran and
its terrorist proxies are pushing for war with Israel to take the heat
off men like Syrian President Bashar Assad.
Israel faces a three-front war. Its position will only get worse as
Egypt slides toward radical Islam and Iran. The Arab Spring is already a
disaster for Israel
.
A ‘Game Changer’ in Egypt
The August 18 terrorist attack couldn’t have happened with Hosni
Mubarak running Egypt. Israeli officials say that a heavily armed group
of Palestinians crossed into the Sinai from Gaza a month before, where
they were joined by other militants. They then crossed the desert into
Israel and attacked.
Mubarak clamped down on terrorists in the Sinai, and while he didn’t
stop weapons flowing into Sinai, he did close the official border and
limit the terrorists flowing out.
Now, it is anarchy.
Islamists attacked the gas pipeline from Egypt to Israel five times
from February to July this year. They have burned down police stations
and even the headquarters of Egypt’s state security in Rafah. The number
of rockets in the Gaza Strip has doubled from 5,000 to 10,000 since the
end of last year.
Even before the August 18 attacks, Israel was very unpopular with the Egyptian people. Now, the tension is even worse.
As Israel pursued the attackers, some Egyptian police were killed in
the crossfire. This poured kerosene on the flames of Egypt’s animosity
toward Israel. “What was tolerated in pre-revolution Egypt will not be
in post-revolution Egypt,” wrote Egyptian Prime Minister Essam Sharaf.
A group of Egyptian politicians, including several of Egypt’s
presidential hopefuls and the former leader of the Arab League, Amr
Moussa, published a statement in local newspapers warning that Mubarak
was “a strategic asset to Israel” but now, Egypt is ruled “by a strong
popular will that does not know weakness or complicity and understands
how to achieve retribution for the blood of the martyrs.”
At time of writing, Egypt has not completed its autopsy on the dead
policemen, but don’t expect Egyptian leaders to call for retribution if
it turns out they were killed by the terrorists.
The killings prompted protests outside the Israeli Embassy in Egypt.
One man scaled the building and replaced the Israeli flag with an
Egyptian one. He has been applauded across Egypt and on Facebook and
Twitter.
Faced with Egyptian threats to recall Egypt’s ambassador, Israel
apologized for the deaths. Egypt’s cabinet refused to accept the
apology, saying it was “not in keeping with the magnitude of the
incident and the state of Egyptian anger toward Israeli actions.”
The Egyptian people have long been anti-Israeli and anti-Semitic,
but as JKC de Courcy of Intelligence Research pointed out, the
“game-changer” is that now, “Egypt has to take account of popular
opinion in a way that the Mubarak regime did not.” He continued: “Even
under the transitional Supreme Military Council this factor is having an
impact on Egyptian policy, and that will be even more the case once
elections have been held” (August 24).
An Incentive for War
This incident is being exploited by Hamas and their Egyptian
cousins, the Muslim Brotherhood. “There is evidence that Hamas and the
Muslim Brotherhood are working together to refocus the energy of the
Arab Spring onto Israel and the Palestinian question and away from the
purely domestic issues that were the initial inspiration,” wrote de
Courcy.
Stratfor’s George Friedman warns that this pro-Palestinian sentiment
“is a singular unifying force that might suffice to break the
military’s power, or at least force the military to shift its Israeli
policy” (August 22).
Hamas’s strategy is to attack Israel through front
organizations—terrorist groups that it supports or controls but denies
having any jurisdiction over. This means that if Israel bombs Gaza,
Hamas can deny having provoked the conflict and simply play the victim.
Sadly, history shows that most of the world will believe it.
“I find it difficult to believe that Hamas, with an excellent
intelligence service inside Gaza and among the Islamist groups in the
Sinai, would not at least have known these groups’ broad intentions and
would not have been in a position to stop them,” wrote Friedman. “Just
as Fatah created Black September in the 1970s, a group that appeared
separate from Fatah but was in fact covertly part of it, the strategy of
creating new organizations to take the blame for conflicts is an old
tactic both for the Palestinians and throughout the world” (ibid).
Hamas has much to gain by provoking war. It would be almost
impossible for Egypt’s government to keep its peace with Israel while
popular opinion overwhelmingly supported the “innocent” Hamas as it was
bombed in Gaza. Rather it would surely allow aid of every type to flow
into Gaza to help Hamas confront the Israelis.
Such a war would also make it hard for Fatah, in the West Bank, to
do nothing. There, popular opinion would be clamoring for an intifada,
which could push Fatah to side with Hamas. Meanwhile, Israel would be
condemned by the world for trying to defend itself.
Yet it is not only Hamas that has an incentive to attack Israel. Israel Surrounded
Wherever there is conflict in the Middle East, it seems Iran is nearly always involved.
The Washington Times wrote on August 24, “Iran’s supreme
leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has ordered the Revolutionary Guards to draw
Israel into another Middle East war through their Islamic Jihad, Hamas
and Hezbollah proxies in an effort to save Bashar Assad’s brutal regime
in Syria, sources report.”
Assad’s troubles give Hezbollah a strong incentive to attack Israel.
The terrorist group’s popularity has suffered as it has supported
Assad. But if it takes the focus off Syria’s leader by attacking Israel,
it can paint itself as the hero of the Arab world once again. And it
can paint Assad’s enemies as agents of Israel. Even if Assad fell,
Hezbollah would come out looking far stronger if it was pitched in
battle against the Jews. “It would help Hezbollah create a moral
foundation for itself independent of Syria,” Friedman explained.
So Israel has enemies to the north and south with strong incentives
to start a war. Fatah in the east would face strong pressure to join
them.
Israel faces the strong prospect of a three-front war. Its leaders
seem aware of the danger. They have already announced that they will
call on their reserves in September. But even if they weather the storm,
they’re in a tough position. Egypt is still sliding inexorably toward
Hamas and Iran. It has lost control of the Sinai. Israel has allowed a
thousand more Egyptian troops to enter the Sinai to try and bring it
under control—but when Egypt aligns with Iran, these troops will become
the enemy.
Biblical prophecy warns that East Jerusalem will soon fall to
radical Islamic forces. The Arab Spring is setting the stage for this,
making the radicals powerful enough to push at Israel.
How long can Israel survive when it is threatened on three fronts?
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