Russia's Strategy by George Friedman

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 reversed a process that had been under way since the Russian Empire's emergence in the 17th century. It was ultimately to incorporate four general elements: Eastern Europe, Central Asia, the Caucasus and Siberia. The St. Petersburg-Moscow axis was its core, and Russia, Belorussia and Ukraine were its center of gravity. The borders were always dynamic, mostly expanding but periodically contracting as the international situation warranted. At its farthest extent, from 1945 to 1989, it reached central Germany, dominating the lands it seized in World War II. The Russian Empire was never at peace. As with many empires, there were always parts of it putting up (sometimes violent) resistance and parts that bordering powers coveted -- as well as parts of other nations that Russia coveted.

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The Dutch Government's Collapse and the European Implications

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced that his Cabinet would resign April 23. The announcement came after the government failed to agree on budget cuts with its key partner the Party for Freedom, whose support had boosted the minority coalition to a parliamentary majority.

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China-Philippines Standoff Intensifies

From theTrumpet.com  

 China’s belligerency is on display on the world stage once again.

Beijing intensified a 10-day standoff between the Philippines and China on Friday by sending a third ship to a shoal in the South China Sea where both sides claim sovereignty.

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EU to Create New ‘Super-President’?

From   theTrumpet.com         Another idea from the ‘Berlin Club’

 A group of EU foreign ministers discussed the idea of merging the European Union’s top jobs into one on April 19, the EU Observer reports, coining the term “super-president” to describe the new top job.

The jobs of European Council president, currently held by Herman Van Rompuy, and European Commission president, currently held by José Manuel Barroso, may be merged. “The new super-president would also chair General Affairs Councils (gacs)—monthly meetings of foreign ministers which discuss internal Union affairs,” writes the EU Observer. Its source reports that experts believe this can be done without a treaty change.

The idea emerged from a meeting of 10 EU foreign ministers organized by German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle to discuss closer European integration. Sometimes called the “Berlin Club,” the group usually has 11 members: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal and Spain. The French foreign minister, however, was not able to attend this last meeting.

These ministers see that for Europe to become better integrated it needs a strong central leader. As the euro crisis pushes those nations that are committed to remaining in the euro closer together, watch for this idea to become more popular. Europe knows it needs a strong central leader to respond to the dangers of today’s world.

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With Submarines against Pirates

German government advisors are pleading for using submarines in the war on piracy at the Horn of Africa. Thanks to their "highly modern sensor technology," German submarines are not only capable of "covertly observing the pirates' vessels" and following their course, but also of "observing the pirates' potential bases both day and night," according to a statement just published by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). The bases could therefore be attacked with greater precision, as the EU decided Friday - in spite of warnings that this could lead to a further escalation of the conflict in Somalia. Geostrategic considerations are at the core of the militarization projects, being promoted by the Bundeswehr. The Indian Ocean has become extremely important in global policy and it will play a pivotal role in future conflicts with China. Under no circumstances should the "new momentum in the greater region of the Indian Ocean" be neglected, warns the director of the SWP. Military strategists are underlining the importance of a strong naval presence in the ocean between Africa and Southeast Asia.

In Violation of International Law

The appeal of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) for new militarization projects corresponds to the decision taken by the EU's foreign ministers last Friday, to combat piracy also on shore in the future. According to this decision, not the pirates themselves, but their weapons, vessels, fuel and even food supplies should be attacked and destroyed. This should be permitted "on shore," but the military seeks to avoid clarifying, what exactly is meant by "shore," and what is being targeted. The Federal Cabinet plans to endorse these new regulations on Wednesday and the endorsement by the German Bundestag should follow as soon as possible. Experts had explicitly warned against the extension of the mandate, fearing an uncontrollable escalation of the conflict. (german-foreign-policy.com reported.) Even parliamentarians of the opposition, who, in principle, support the war on piracy, point to the illegality of on shore military attacks on pirates. Reinhard Buetikofer (Green Party) reminds that pirates are "criminals and not enemy combatants." To "attack them on land, without them posing a direct danger, is simply in violation of international law."

Combat Unit "Berlin"

These regulations are of particular importance to Germany, not only because of the endorsement by Berlin's foreign minister, but also because of the prominent role the Bundeswehr is currently playing in the EU Operation Atalanta. The Bundeswehr had just dispatched its combat unit logistical support vessel "Berlin" to the Horn of Africa - "not as a logistical support vessel, but as a combat unit," the German Armed Forces underlined. The "Berlin" is therefore carrying more personnel than usual - military police and a so-called boarding team, but also two "Sea King" helicopters. These helicopters are equipped with machine-guns, to be used against alleged piracy infrastructures, in line with the EU's decision. "Particularly the Bundeswehr, at this point" can launch these attacks, writes the press, "because it has the appropriate helicopters in the theater of operations."

Very Experienced in Surveillance

SWP is now proposing another militarization project for the Horn of Africa and calls on the German government to dispatch German submarines to the Somali coast. The crews of the submarines are "familiar with deployment in shallow waters and reconnaissance missions." Thanks to their "highly modern sensor technology," the submarines are not only capable of "keeping potential pirate bases under surveillance day and night with great perseverance (...) and rapidly signaling the surveillance results." They are also capable of localizing pirate vessels and following their course. Other warships, or their board helicopters, could open fire, if Berlin still seeks to avoid the deployment of special forces. The current official EU position does not permit ground troops to engage the pirates on shore. The SWP author, who, during his career in the Navy had served as a submarine commander as well as a fleet command operations officer, points out that submarines, unlike helicopters and reconnaissance aircraft, can operate "undercover" - they are undetectable by the pirates. The German Navy has extensive experience. "For years it has been participating in NATO's undercover surveillance operations in the Mediterranean."

Geostrategic Competition

These militarization plans are certainly not a reaction merely to considerations of how to combat more effectively piracy off the coast of Somalia, but to geostrategic considerations as well. For example, last year Volker Perthes, Director of SWP, pointed out that the "interests" behind the countries' sending their naval vessels to the Horn of Africa are not "limited to the war on piracy." Perthes explains that, over the past few years, the importance of the Indian Ocean, where piracy is being fought in its western sector, has enormously grown. "One third of the world's maritime trade" crosses this route, with the trend rising rapidly. Particularly East Asian countries, especially China, are making large infrastructure investments in the bordering countries - port facilities or transportation means -, which are "also elements of the geostrategic competition." It is, after all, "it goes without saying" that China and even India have "an interest in protecting their maritime links." Even though the United States "will remain the strongest maritime power in the Indian Ocean, for the foreseeable future," it will soon "no longer be the sole maritime power." Perthes warns that "the new momentum in the greater region of the Indian Ocean" should not be neglected and one must also be involved.

The Decisive Maritime Region

Parting from this premise, military experts are emphasizing the need for the strongest possible naval presence in the Indian Ocean. "With the growing geostrategic significance of the Indian Ocean region, the influence also grows for those, participating in the political military architecture of the region," according to a military policy analysis published last year in a renowned Austrian military review. "A gigantic power struggle is currently taking place in the Indian Ocean," a high-ranking Swiss officer is quoted saying. "The navies of China, Japan, India, the USA, the Europeans, the NATO, and the EU are taking up positions, ports are being built, and naval forces are being equipped." The officer sees world historical upheavals. "For the first time since the 16th Century," he writes, "we are seeing the downfall of a western maritime power in this decisive maritime region."The military activities in the Indian Ocean, even at the Horn of Africa, will determine who, in the future, will predominate over an ocean, characterized by the former director of the German Combined Chief of Staff in the Defense Ministry, ret. Vice Admiral Ulrich Weisser as the "decisive region for the seas of the world" and characterized it as "decisive for the future power structure in Asia." (german-foreign-policy.com reported. This is the context, to be considered, if one wants to take up the proposal to station German submarines in the western sector of the Indian Ocean.

From www.german-foreign-policy.com

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Russia Planning Troops Deployment On Iran's Northern Border And Waiting For A Western Attack By F. Michael Maloof

"Information Clearing House" --- WASHINGTON – The Russian military anticipates that an attack will occur on Iran by the summer and has developed an action plan to move Russian troops through neighboring Georgia to stage in Armenia, which borders on the Islamic republic, according to informed Russian sources.

Russian Security Council head Viktor Ozerov said that Russian General Military Headquarters has prepared an action plan in the event of an attack on Iran.

Dmitry Rogozin, who recently was the Russian ambassador to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, warned against an attack on Iran.

"Iran is our neighbor," Rogozin said. "If Iran is involved in any military action, it's a direct threat to our security." Rogozin now is the deputy Russian prime minister and is regarded as anti-Western. He oversees Russia's defense sector.

Russian Defense Ministry sources say that the Russian military doesn't believe that Israel has sufficient military assets to defeat Iranian defenses and further believes that U.S. military action will be necessary.

The implication of preparing to move Russian troops not only is to protect its own vital regional interests but possibly to assist Iran in the event of such an attack. Sources add that a Russian military buildup in the region could result in the Russian military potentially engaging Israeli forces, U.S. forces, or both.

Informed sources say that the Russians have warned of "unpredictable consequences" in the event Iran is attacked, with some Russians saying that the Russian military will take part in the possible war because it would threaten its vital interests in the region.

The influential Russian Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper has quoted a Russian military source as saying that the situation forming around Syria and Iran "causes Russia to expedite the course of improvement of its military groups in the South Caucasus, the Caspian, Mediterranean and Black Sea regions."

This latest information comes from a series of reports and leaks from official Russian spokesmen and government news agencies who say that an Israeli attack is all but certain by the summer.

Because of the impact on Russian vital interests in the region, sources say that Russian preparations for such an attack began two years ago when Russian Military Base 102 in Gyumri, Armenia, was modernized. It is said to occupy a major geopolitical position in the region.

Families of Russian servicemen from the Russian base at Gyumri in Armenia close to the borders of Georgia and Turkey already have been evacuated, Russian sources say.

"Military Base 102 is a key point, Russia's outpost in the South Caucasus," a Russian military source told the newspaper. "It occupies a very important geopolitical position, but the Kremlin fears lest it should lose this situation."

With Vladimir Putin returning to the Russian presidency, the prospect that he again would order an attack on Georgia as he did in August 2008 also has become a possibility, these informed sources say.

The Russians believe that Georgia would cooperate with the United States in blocking any supplies from reaching Military Base 102, which now is supplied primarily by air. Right now, Georgia blocks the only land transportation route through which Russian military supplies could travel.

Fuel for the Russian base in Armenia comes from Iran. Russian officials believe this border crossing may be closed in the event of a war.

"Possibly, it will be necessary to use military means to breach the Georgian transport blockade and establish transport corridors leading into Armenia," according to Yury Netkachev, former deputy commander of Russian forces in Transcaucasia. Geography of the region suggests that any such supply corridor would have to go through the middle of Georgia approaching Georgia's capital of Tbilisi given the roads and topography of the country.

In September, the Russian military plans to hold its annual military exercises called Kavkaz 2012. However, informed Russian sources say that preparations and deployments of military equipment and personnel already have begun in anticipation of a possible war with Iran.

These sources report that new command and control equipment has been deployed in the region capable of using the Russian GPS system, GLONASS for targeting information.

"The air force in the South Military District is reported to have been rearmed almost 100 percent with new jets and helicopters," according to regional expert Pavel Felgenhauer of the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation.

In 2008, Felgenhauer pointed out, Kavkaz 2008 maneuvers allowed the Russian military to covertly deploy forces that successfully invaded Georgia in August of that year.

Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov already has announced that new Spetznaz, or Special Forces units, will be deployed in Stavropol and Kislovodsk, which are located in the North Caucasian regions.

Russian sources say that the Russian military believes that if the U.S. goes to war with Iran, it may deploy forces into Georgia and warships in the Caspian Sea with the possible help of Azerbaijan, which since has stated that it will not allow its territory to be used by Israel to launch an attack on neighboring Iran.

There had been speculation that given the improved relations between Israel and Azerbaijan, the Jewish state may use bases from which to launch air attacks on neighboring Iran's nuclear sites. Israel recently agreed to sell Azerbaijan $1.6 billion in military equipment.

A further irritant to Georgia's President Mikhail Saakashvili is the prospect that Russian assault airborne troops, or VDV units, with helicopters could be moved into Georgia's two breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. These two provinces were taken by the Russian military during the August 2008 Russian-Georgian war. Initially they were declared by Moscow to be independent countries, but now the Kremlin is indicating they may be annexed to Russia.

Similarly, Lt. General Vladimir Shamanov, commander of the VDV, has announced that Russian troops in Armenia will be reinforced by paratroopers, along with attack and transport helicopters.

"The Russian spearhead (from the Transcaucasia region) may be ordered to strike south to prevent the presumed deployment of U.S. bases in Transcaucasia, to link up with the troops in Armenia and take over the South Caucasus energy corridor along which Azeri, Turkmen and other Caspian natural gas and oil may reach European markets," Felgenhauer said.

"By one swift military strike, Russia may ensure control of all the Caucasus and the Caspian states that were its former realm, establishing a fiat accompli the West, too preoccupied with Iran, would not reverse," he said.

"At the same time, a small victorious war would unite the Russian nation behind the Kremlin, allowing it to crush the remnants of the prodemocracy movement 'for fair elections,' and as a final bonus, Russia's military action could perhaps finally destroy the Saakashvili regime."

Putin has made no secret that he despises Saakashvili and with his return to the presidency, he may consider taking out the Georgian president as unfinished business. Just as in 2008, Putin will not have much to worry about if he sends Russian troops into Georgia, since there was muted reaction from the U.S. and the European countries to the Russian invasion and subsequent occupation.
 
F. Michael Maloof, staff writer for WND’s G2Bulletin, is a former senior security policy analyst in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. He can be contacted at mmaloof@wnd.com.
This post originally appeared at G2 Bulletin.

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US Gives Iran 'Last Chance' Warning by Guy Adams

"The Independent"  -Iran must immediately close a large nuclear facility built underneath a mountain if it is to take what President Obama has called a "last chance" to resolve its escalating dispute with the West via diplomacy.

Other "near term" concessions which must be met in the early stages of talks to avoid a potential military conflict, include the suspension of higher level uranium enrichment, and the surrender by Tehran of existing stockpiles of the fuel, senior US officials said yesterday.

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Iran Warns West Against Military Intervention in Syria

A senior Iranian cleric warned the West and Saudi Arabia on Friday against taking military action in the Syrian crisis.

Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami said that the West, “the Arab hardliner regimes, and the Saudi Arabian government, all should know that if they intervene militarily in Syria, a fire would be started that would burn themselves before anyone else.” 

The ayatollah’s comments come at a time of escalated violence in Syria, which is Iran’s most important regional ally. This week, Syrian forces have intensified attacks against opposition just days before an internationally sponsored ceasefire is set to take hold. This crackdown has prompted thousands of Syrian refugees to flee into Turkey in recent days. 

Iran fears that the upheaval in Syria provides the West and Saudi Arabia with an opportunity to sever Tehran’s critical alliance with Damascus.

The Trumpet believes that, as international pressure against the Syrian government continues to mount, Iranian fears will be realized. A split between Iran and Syria is on the horizon.
From thetrumpet.com

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