Russia’s navy is about to get more dangerous. On June 17 Russia agreed to buy two of the most advanced amphibious assault ships in the world. With one of these, the Black Sea fleet would have been able to complete its part in the 2008 invasion of Georgia in “40 minutes, not 26 hours,” said Russian naval commander Vladimir Vysotsky.
Each ship can carry 16 helicopters, four landing barges, 40 tanks and over 400 soldiers for up to six months—rising to 700 over short periods. The government-approved sale of the French Mistral Class landing vessels deal is “the most significant transfer of Western military technology to Russia since the end of World War ii,” wrote Stratfor (June 21). This is just part of a new alliance that is revolutionizing geopolitics. France is joining with Germany in breaking away from America’s foreign policy and instead moving toward Russia.
Russia is flush with cash and natural resources. But it needs technology and modernization in its military, its oil and gas industry, and in its economy.
Russia Wins the Gas War
This new alliance has given Russia the edge in the battle to control Europe’s resources.
Europe woke up to the fact that Russia controlled most of its gas supply in 2006. In the middle of a cold winter, Russia shut off the gas to Ukraine to try to bludgeon it into compliance. All of Europe soon felt the pinch.
Quickly Europe began to look for ways to wean itself off Russian gas. Enthusiasm grew for the proposed Nabucco pipeline—a gas line through Turkey that would bring natural gas directly from the Caucasus, skirting Russia.
But Europe was stabbed in the back by Germany. Rather than try to beat Russia, Germany decided to join it. Its now turning itself into a major hub for Russian gas, and gaining some of Russia’s power.
Despite opposition from pretty much every other country on the Baltic shore, Russia and Germany completed a 760-mile undersea gas pipeline on May 5. It is scheduled to begin operation this autumn, and a second pipeline will be completed later. The pipeline gives both Russia and Germany more power. Russia can cut off gas to Eastern Europe while still pumping gas to Western Europe through Germany. This means it can bring Eastern Europe to heel without antagonizing the west.
Germany, meanwhile, will be able to control Western Europe’s gas supplies. As we wrote in May 2007: German strategists realize that once the pipeline is complete, they will hold the same gas supply trump card over downstream countries that Russia holds over many Eastern European countries. …
The world has witnessed how Russia used control of gas supplies to extract political and economic concessions from … Ukraine, Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Georgia and Armenia. Is it so inconceivable that Germany, Russia’s old pre-World War ii collaborator, would ever seek to do the same?
Across Europe, nations are renouncing nuclear power. These countries will almost certainly have to replace their nuclear power with natural gas, at least in the short term. It is readily available and less polluting than coal or oil. The International Energy Agency recently predicted a “golden age of gas.” This means more power to Russia and Germany.
Meanwhile, Russia has, with German help, probably killed Nabucco. In June, Russian state-controlled gas company Gazprom signed a memorandum of understanding about the possibility of forming a strategic partnership with German utility company rwe to build gas- and coal-fired energy plants across Europe. rwe is the main partner in the Nabucco consortium. Nabucco is already having problems. Gazprom should have no problem using its new influence with rwe to scupper the project. Five years after Russia shut off Ukraine’s gas, Russia and Germany have split control of a vast chunk of Europe’s gas.
And Russia and Germany’s cooperation seems set to continue. As German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev co-chaired talks on July 18 to 19 between the two governments in Hanover, Russia offered Germany a partnership to develop Russia’s reserves of rare earth minerals, metals that are vital in many modern devices.
France is looking to get in on the action too. On July 20, Russia cleared the way for French energy giant Total to join Russia’s most important natural gas project—the Yamal Arctic project. Russia’s Yamal peninsula holds the world’s largest natural gas reserves and Russia will have to develop this area if it wants to continue to dominate Europe’s natural gas market. But the Yamal peninsula presents huge challenges. It is north of the Arctic Circle and becomes swampy in the summer—meaning that drilling can only go on in the dark of winter. Total will bring some of the technical expertise needed to make the project a success.
Echoes of Rapallo
France isn’t the only military power Russia is working with. On June 17, Germany’s Rheinmetall signed a $398 million contract to build a “state of the art” troop training center in Russia that will eventually be able to train thousands. “This,” writes the National Interest, “brings back memories of the post-Rapallo 1920s and early 1930s secret cooperation between the ussr’s Red Army and the Weimar Germany’s Reichswehr, which allowed the latter to develop and test weapons in Russia, forbidden under the Treaty of Versailles.” Rheinmetall is not controlled by the German government, but Berlin is allowing the deal to go ahead. Can you imagine the U.S. allowing Lockheed Martin to sell “state of the art” equipment to Russia?
While signing the contract with Rheinmetall, Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov toured a Rheinmetall testing center. Until recently it was rumored that Russia would buy German Leopard tanks. Instead, the Russian defense industry is now interested in using German armor in Russian vehicles, according to Komsomolskaya Pravda.
These are small beginnings for German-Russian military cooperation. But any kind of cooperation is bound to make the central European countries that were invaded by both Germany and Russia nervous.
In fact, it is the growing Russian-German relationship that has pushed France toward making the Mistral deal. “France sees Berlin and Moscow cooperating and wants to make sure it develops its own relationship with Russia independent of its relationship with Germany,” wrote Stratfor. “The easiest way to do this is to offer Russia military and energy technology that Germany simply does not have” (June 21).
Germany has risen to become the leader of Europe. It is newly powerful and newly independent—breaking with the U.S., for example, over the decision to intervene in Libya. At the same time, it is forging an alliance with Russia.
As Brad Macdonald wrote on theTrumpet.com back in 2009, “History is consistent on this point: Germany and Russia are not close friends, and any appearance that they are is a harbinger of conflict …. [T]he formation of a Russian-German axis is currently one of the most significant and underrated trends on the world scene! … Unlike America, the Kremlin is well aware of European history and sees that Germany has restored itself as the dominant power and natural leader of Europe. By forging closer ties with Berlin, the Russians are getting on good terms with the political, military and economic entity that will determine Europe’s future.” Just as in the past, Russia and Germany both benefit, in the short term, from the alliance. But as Germany grows in power, the two will become competitors. Watch this German-Russian relationship closely as history repeats itself. •
Original article on www.thetrumpet.com
