The Week in Review

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The Week in Review
August 23, 2008 From theTrumpet.comRussia’s war against Georgia ripples across continents, Berlin and Moscow are making the pact we’ve been anticipating for decades, and U.S. leaders are realizing what the Trumpet has said for years: America lacks will.

Middle East
Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf resigned August 18. The Pakistani parliament had initiated impeachment proceedings against him on charges of conspiring against the nation’s democratic transition. Musharraf’s ouster from politics creates a power vacuum in this nuclear-armed Muslim country. The current Pakistani government is based on a coalition of the Pakistan People’s Party and the Pakistan Muslim League—two rival parties that have been united only in their disdain for Musharraf. With Musharraf gone, governmental instability will increase and Pakistan will be up for grabs.

The Israeli government agreed August 17 to release about 200 Fatah prisoners, including some involved in the murder of Israelis. According to a statement released by the Prime Minister’s Office, “This is a gesture and a trust-building move aimed at bolstering the moderates in the Palestinian Authority and the peace process.” If the so-called moderates in the Palestinian Authority (PA) were really moderate, however, they would not want Israel to release terrorists. The reason the PA wants these people released is so it can score points among a Palestinian population that is sympathetic to terrorists.

Iran claimed it successfully launched a “dummy” satellite aboard a multiple-stage satellite-launch vehicle August 16, and two days later offered to help other Muslim countries launch their own satellites. Though the United States reported that the Iranian launch failed, it still demonstrates progress in Tehran’s missile program. “It is now clear that Tehran is tinkering with what appears to be a workable design based on North Korean experience that incorporates a second stage,” wrote Stratfor (August 19). This means—when Iran has mastered the second stage—it will have extended the reach of its missiles.

Russia’s invasion of Georgia last week, and its aftermath, could make U.S. involvement in the Middle East far more difficult. Russia is a major arms supplier to Iran, is assisting it in its nuclear program, and is protecting Iran through its veto power in the UN Security Council. As such, the Russians could make it much more difficult for the U.S. to take any meaningful action against Iran. Certainly, if the U.S. were to put any pressure on Russia, Moscow could simply increase arms sales and nuclear cooperation with Tehran. Even the threat of new sanctions—which were on the table at the time of the Georgia invasion—has suddenly become less real, seeing as the sanctions would be ineffective without Russia on board. Then there is Iraq: If Iran starts feeling more confident with Russia at its side, it could once again turn up the heat there. The Americans simply need the Russians more than the Russians need the Americans. Hence the U.S.’s lack of any effective response to Russia’s aggression in Georgia.

Syria is also trying to take advantage of Russia’s resurgence to strengthen its security, with President Bashar Assad visiting Moscow this week to meet with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.

Europe
Hostilities between Russia and the West continued to escalate this week. Poland formally agreed to host a U.S. missile interception base on its territory. As part of the agreement, signed Thursday, the U.S. also agreed to come to Poland’s aid “in case of military or other threats.” Russia responded quickly. “Russia in this case will have to react, and not only through diplomatic protests,” said a statement from the ministry, according to Reuters. Attitudes toward the missile deal flipped 180 degrees after Russia’s invasion of Georgia. Before the war, 70 percent of Poles surveyed were against building the missile base on Polish soil. Now, 63 percent support an America military presence in Poland. “The war in Georgia very quickly and suddenly changed the mood of Poles,” said political analyst Grzegorz Kostrzewa-Zorbas. “In a week, a strong majority emerged supporting the American missile shield in Poland.” According to another poll, half of Poland fears a Russian attack. Only 38 percent said they were not afraid. As Russia grows more aggressive, watch for fear to motivate European countries to forge a similar alliance to the one Poland and the U.S. have just signed.

Poland and the U.S. may not be the only countries making deals, however. Germany may have another way to deal with the rising power in the east. Stratfor wrote, “Stratfor sources in Moscow have said that Medvedev has offered Merkel a security pact for their two countries. This offer is completely unconfirmed, and the details are unknown. However, it would make sense for Russia to propose such a pact since Moscow knows that, of all the European countries, Germany is the one to pursue—not only because of the country’s vulnerabilities and strong economic ties with Russia but because the two have a history of cozying up to each other.” They point out that most of the world thought it was impossible for Germany and Russia to ally in the 1930s. Once again a German-Russia back-room deal could shock the world, and signal the arrival of a very independent Germany.

Consumer optimism in Germany is at a five-year low, a survey revealed this week. Forty-five percent of Germans believe the economy is declining, compared to 26 percent who thought this way in June, according to zdf television. The Germans’ worries seem reasonable. The eurozone’s economy shrank by 0.2 percent in the three-month period ending on June 30. This is the first quarterly shrinkage since the euro was first introduced in 1999. Germany’s economy, the largest in Europe, shrank by 0.5 percent, and France’s by 0.3 percent. Europe’s economic woes, though, should worry the whole world. Last time Germany’s economy got into serious trouble, a right-wing madman used the unrest to get into power.

Asia
Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda broke with his predecessors on Friday of last week when he refused to visit a controversial shrine dedicated to 14 Japanese war criminals that were executed after World War ii. Instead, Fukuda placated China by attending a separate ceremony where he expressed his remorse for the pain and suffering Japan inflicted on other nations during the war. This kowtow to Beijing is the latest of a series of demonstrations of how Japan is now relying on its historic rival, China, as an ally. Now that China has replaced the United States as Japan’s biggest customer, expect Japan to rely even further on its Asian neighbors at it becomes less and less dependent on the United States.

Africa, South America
Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe intends to convene parliament next Tuesday, jeopardizing any chance for a resolution to his country’s political and economic crisis. Morgan Tsvangirai—who won the first round of presidential elections but has been embroiled in a violent political crisis—says this is a violation of power-sharing talks and that Mugabe “may have abandoned the basis for the talks.” The two are currently at loggerheads over the roles of the prime minister and president, with neither wanting to find himself in a ceremonial role. Tsvangirai visited Kenya, where a similar political explosion erupted following an election at the end of last year, to seek advice from Prime Minister Raila Odinga this week. Meanwhile, Zimbabwe continues its economic slide, with inflation an estimated 11 million percent. For more about political violence in Africa, read “The Unseen Danger in Political Violence” from the April Trumpet.

Mexican President Felipe Calderon held a security meeting August 21 to address the rise in kidnappings and drug-related murders. bbc News reports that there is an average of 65 kidnappings per month, but because many may be paying the ransom to free their loved ones, the real number may be much higher. More than 2,600 have died in drug-related violence so far this year. President Calderon has dispatched more than 30,000 soldiers across the country since 2007, but that measure has not been effective. Public marches in response to the kidnappings are planned for August 30. But the drug war cannot be won with marches and security meetings. For a real solution, read Joel Hilliker’s June 25 article “A Key to Winning the Drug War” on theTrumpet.com.

Anglo-America
Powerful storms are again pounding Florida, with floodwaters trapping residents and rising as high as 5 feet in some places. The storm, which had threatened to become a hurricane, has stalled over central Florida and continues to dump inches of rain onto Floridians. Expect more storms in the future, not less, with increasingly greater severity.
America’s need to have the will to win a war was breaking news Thursday morning. A Washington Times exclusive reported that Republican presidential hopeful John McCain sent a private letter to President George W. Bush in late 2006 challenging him to show the “will” to win the Iraq war with a 20,000-troop surge into the Sunni Triangle in Iraq. President Bush, who had resisted the idea for more than three years, now praised his potential successor’s judgment, saying that the troop surge has worked. The effect of this carefully timed political maneuver on any candidate’s political fortune is irrelevant compared to the larger news: Some of America’s leaders are glimpsing—if just barely—the real emergency: a crisis of will. Even the current administration, ardently opposed by more than half the country as being too “aggressive,” has had trouble summoning the will to stabilize Iraq, and has zero willpower to even fight Russia’s assault on the U.S.’s ally Georgia, let alone win. It remains to be seen how much America’s leaders will wake up to what Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry has stressed for nearly two decades: that the U.S. lacks the will to win—and now lacks even the will to fight. Check the basis for this perceptive forecast in Leviticus 26:19, where God says He will break the willpower of the nation that rebels against Him.

Another student has been murdered at school. At 8:11 a.m. on Thursday, a student walked into Central High School in Knoxville, Tennessee, and shot a fellow student. The victim died later that day; police say the shooting was intentional and the student who died was purposefully targeted.
In economic news, Bloomberg reported that crude oil jumped $5 due to the falling dollar and fears that the U.S.-Poland missile shield pact signed Wednesday could agitate Russia and cause it to disrupt oil flows. BP has already shut down the Baku-Supsa pipeline due to concerns and damage resulting from the Russian invasion of Georgia. •